New Tecumseth Monthly Market Update- December, 2020

▪️December 2020 saw ANOTHER new record high average sale price but the number of local sales has dropped again.  That sales drop is to be expected for December.  Unfortunately, this has only worsened the buying environment with things being more expensive and competitive.

▪️There were 42 sales in December, down from 62 in November, similar to the 43 in December 2019, and below the 13-month average of 76 sales per month. The 42 sales mark the second month in a row of the last six months with sales below 100 sales per month.  December is traditionally a slow month for sales with the holidays and winter weather.  But this dramatic decrease in sales has me thinking the very low inventory is contributing to this in addition to the worsening pandemic second wave.

▪️Record high Average Sold prices, $840k(!!), are up significantly from December 2019, $590k, (42%!!), and up from November 2020, $797k (+5.3% in one month, +13.5% in the last two months!), and well above the increasing 13-month average of $722k.  **However, Decembers prices are skewed, there were three sales locally in the month for over $2M**  These are incredible price trends for a global pandemic, but also continue to concern me as it is unsustainable.  Approx. 20/42 (48%), sales in the month were above $700k.  Townhouse average sales prices, $646k, are another record high and up significantly from last years, $513k (+26%), and above their 13-month average of $564.

▪️Active Listings, 36, is below last month's 66, and one third of last years, 110, and further below the decreasing 13-month average of 107.  This 36 Active Listings is the lowest number years, very low historically, and maybe proportionally the lowest ever!  These low inventory levels are the on-going trend that started in December 2019.  These low numbers are the driving factor in the high prices and insatiable demand.

▪️Months of Inventory, 0.9, is significantly below last years, 2.6, and less than last months 1.1, and less than the decreasing 13-month average of 1.8.  This is the fourth month of the last five with MOI of less than 1.  Values below 4.0 are said to be a seller’s market and means prices should be rising, and they certainly have been!

▪️Days on Market were up to an average of 31 days, higher than last month’s low 20 days, and lower again than December 2019’s 36 days (-14%), and higher than the 13-month average of 29 days on market.  20/42 (48%) of sales in November were sold in 10 days or less.  This is another illustration of Novembers very strong buying demand; even with pandemic pressures, the homes that are selling are selling at very fast rates.

▪️Consecutive record average sale prices and extremely low inventory are great for home sellers and Realtors, but buyers have not had it easy this year.  I am concerned because these record figures are unsustainable.  The questions is: if and when the numbers start to trend the other way, will it be a soft transitions or a hard crash?  The last correction in 2017 was initiated by government intervention.  What could it be this time?  A second-wave pandemic lockdown? A vaccine enabling more people to sell their home? Or vaccine relief that slows the exodus from the city and lowers demand?

▪️If you’ve been considering selling, don’t delay.  Don’t wait until spring.  If you’re buying for the long term, you may be buying at a high point, but over the long run it won’t matter.  If you’re planning on buying and selling again soon ie flipping, now is a risky time to buy.

▪️I have been tracking and sharing weekly sales statistic on my social media and blog because things are changing so quickly.

▪️Stay safe and be well everyone.  

Weekly Snapshot- December, 2020

Year- Over- Year- December, 2020