New Tecumseth Monthly Market Update - November, 2020

November 2020 saw another new record high average sale price but the number of local sales has dropped significantly.  This is great news for home owners and sellers because the value of your home asset has continued to increase, throughout the pandemic.  But it is bad news for anyone trying to buy a home. 

There were 62 sales in November, down from 103 in October, down from 69 in November 2019, and below the 13-month average of 78 sales per month.  The 62 sales mark the first month in the last five months in a row with sales below 100 sales per month.  November is traditionally and slowing month for sales as the slower holidays and winter months approach.  But this dramatic decrease in sales leads me to believe the decrease is also fueled by pandemic second wave concerns.  

Record high Average Sold prices, $797k, are up significantly from November 2019 ($619k, +29%), and up from October 2020, $737k (+8.2% in one month!), and above the increasing 13-month average of $713k.  These are amazing price trends for a global pandemic, but also continue to concern me as it is unsustainable.  Approx. 34/62 (55%), sales in the month were above $700k.  Townhouse average sales prices, $643k, are another record high and up significantly from last years, $477k (+35%!), and above their 13-month average of $550.

Active Listings, 66, is below last month’s 77, and less than half of last years, 155, and further below the decreasing 13-month average of 116.  This 66 Active Listings is the lowest number in the last 13 months and very low historically, and part of the on-going trend of very low inventory that started in November 2019.  These low numbers are the driving factor in the high prices and competitive demand.

Months of Inventory, 1.1, is significantly below last years, 2.2, but greater than last months 0.7, and less than the decreasing 13-month average of 1.9.  1.1 MOI is the result of the 62 sales compared to the low number of Active Listings, 66.  Values below 4.0 are said to be a seller’s market and means prices should be rising, and they certainly have been. 

Days on Market were up to an average of 20 days, higher than last month’s low 17 days, and much lower than November 2019’s 42 days (-52%), and less than the 13-month average of 29 days on market.  29/62 (46%) of sales in November were sold in 10 days or less.  This is another illustration of Novembers very strong buying demand; even with pandemic pressures, the homes that are selling are selling at very fast rates. 

Consecutive record average sale prices and extremely low inventory are great for home sellers and Realtors, but buyers have not had it easy this year.  I am concerned because these record figures are unsustainable.  The questions is: if and when the numbers start to trend the other way, will it be a soft transitions or a hard crash?  The last correction in 2017 was initiated by government intervention.  What could it be this time?  A second-wave pandemic lockdown? A vaccine enabling more people to sell their home? Or vaccine relief that slows the exodus from the city and lowers demand?

If you’ve been considering selling, don’t delay.  Don’t’ wait until spring.  If you’re buying for the long term, you may be buying at a high point, but over the long run it won’t matter.  If you’re planning on buying and selling again soon ie flipping, now is a risky time to buy. 

I have been tracking and sharing weekly sales statistic on my social media and blog because things are changing so quickly. 

Stay safe and be well everyone.  

Weekly Snapshot- November, 2020